NFL MVP odds: The case for Josh Allen

With NFL groups reporting to coaching camp, the subsequent transfer on our finish is to search out the MVP futures value a wager earlier than the season begins. This will probably be a collection, with 4 to 5 candidates trying like strong bets, to me a minimum of.

On Wednesday, we began with Tom Brady, and now we flip our consideration to the betting favourite: Josh Allen.

Josh Allen’s 2022 MVP odds

As of this writing, Allen is the betting favourite on each DraftKings and FanDuel, +700 to carry house the 2022 MVP award. 

Why Josh Allen is smart

It isn’t going out on a limb to say that the favourite to win MVP is a smart wager. Some could even say together with Allen in our preliminary appears is boring. To that I say: He is the favourite for a purpose.

As with every MVP future we make, there needs to be an underlying perception on two fronts: His group goes to achieve success, and the participant goes to pile up monster numbers.

On the primary entrance, Buffalo is the favourite to win the Tremendous Bowl, at present sitting at +600 on the finish of July. The Payments have been to the playoffs three straight years, profitable the AFC East the previous two seasons. Their postseason run has ended by the hands of the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs in every of the final two years. In 2020, it was the AFC championship. In 2021, it was within the divisional spherical in an unbelievable sport that noticed the Payments protection permit the Chiefs to drive down the sector with simply 13 seconds left to tie the sport on the finish of regulation.

The Payments are well-positioned to win the AFC East once more, and in the event that they earn the highest seed in a loaded AFC, it should very possible be due to Allen.

Allen’s statistical standing within the league

If the Payments do waltz into the playoffs with home-field benefit, that could be sufficient to crown Allen, however he will want rock-solid numbers to carry house the {hardware}.

Allen’s passing numbers took a slight dip in 2021, however had been nonetheless spectacular. He completed with 4,407 passing yards for 36 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. His 2020 numbers, for reference: 4,544 passing yards, 37 landing passes, 10 interceptions.

To me, it is the interceptions that want to come back down. Aaron Rodgers gained the MVP final season largely attributable to his 37:4 TD:INT ratio. The much less Allen turns the ball over, the higher an opportunity I see him profitable MVP.

The one space the place Allen has differentiated himself on this league is as a runner. Allen completed 2021 with 763 dashing yards and 6 touchdowns. The influence he has along with his legs can’t be overstated: That has helped gamers win this award earlier than (see: Lamar Jackson), and the presence of this potential will really be fueling just a few of my forthcoming alternatives.

Closing phrase: I consider within the Payments

There is no denying Allen is among the greatest quarterbacks within the NFL, one of many leaders of this new technology of passers we’re handled to as followers. Patrick Mahomes, Allen, Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow and Jackson determine to duke it out within the AFC for the foreseeable future.

I do consider on this Payments group total. Their protection was strong for a lot of the 12 months, and the offense has weapons in key spots, specifically Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis at receiver. Whereas Miami and New England must be high quality groups, I do not see Buffalo surrendering the AFC East crown anytime quickly.

The explanation I am betting on Allen stems from my perception that the Payments can recover from the hump and into the Tremendous Bowl. 

For this award, I like the worth on the NFC quarterbacks extra, just because the trail to an ideal document will meet a bit much less resistance. I’ve a sense the MVP winner will come from the AFC’s high seed, a reward for being the very best of the very best.

Essentially the most assured group I see holding that mantle is Buffalo. Enter, Josh Allen.

Allen to win MVP: +700

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